Super El Niño is coming. Here's why the Southern Lakes should pay attention.
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Floods and fires don't usually feature in the same conversation.
In the Southern Lakes, they probably should.
This spring and summer could bring periods of heavy rain, strong winds, rapid vegetation growth and, later in the season, an increased risk of wildfire. The common thread running through all of it is a climate pattern developing thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean: El Niño.
Scientists are forecasting a super El Niño, a natural climate pattern that influences weather around much of the Pacific. At its simplest, El Niño occurs when a large area of the tropical Pacific Ocean warms more than usual. That extra heat influences winds, rainfall and temperatures thousands of kilometres away, including here in New Zealand.
El Niño isn't caused by climate change. It has always been part of the climate system and it turns up every few years whether we like it or not.
But climate change can amplify its impacts.
Think of it this way: El Niño loads the weather dice. Climate change takes a marker pen and adds a few extra sixes.
For the Southern Lakes, that can mean stronger nor'west winds, bigger swings between weather systems and a greater likelihood of weather extremes.
And that's why it's worth preparing for.
One of the biggest misconceptions about El Niño is that it automatically means drought.
Maybe. Maybe not.
Current forecasts suggest the Southern Lakes could see periods of significant rainfall this spring and early summer. But more rain doesn't necessarily mean fewer problems. In a district of steep hillsides, fast-moving rivers and mountain roads, heavy rain can quickly become flooding, slips, road closures and disruption.
At the same time, a wet spring can set the scene for wildfire later in the season.
All that rain helps grass, scrub and vegetation grow. That's great while it's green. But after a few weeks of warm temperatures and strong winds, that extra growth can quickly become fuel.
If you've lived here long enough, you'll know how fast the landscape can change. A hillside that looks lush in October can be tinder dry by January.
That's why the smartest approach isn't trying to predict exactly what summer will do.
It's getting ready for a season that could throw a bit of everything at us.
Start with water
A few days without drinking water isn't something most of us spend much time thinking about until it happens.
Heavy rain, flooding, slips or infrastructure damage can sometimes interrupt essential services, particularly in isolated communities.
Having a supply of drinking water in your household emergency kit is one of the simplest preparedness steps you can take.
It's also worth thinking about how you use water around the home and garden.
A few practical changes can reduce demand during dry periods and help your property cope with whatever the season brings:
Fix leaks and dripping taps
Install water-efficient fixtures where possible
Water gardens early morning or evening
Water deeply rather than frequently to encourage deeper roots
Use mulch to reduce evaporation
Improve soil with compost to help retain moisture
Healthy soils and well-watered plants cope better with both dry spells and heavy rainfall.
Plant for the summer you might get
Spring is a great time to think beyond what's looking good at the garden centre and consider what will still be thriving in February.
Locally appropriate and drought-tolerant species generally cope better with the Southern Lakes' climate swings, whether that's a dry nor'wester or a sudden downpour.
The choices you make now can make your property more resilient later.
A wet spring can still lead to a bad fire season
When people think about wildfire risk, they usually picture months without rain.
The reality can be more complicated.
One of the biggest contributors to wildfire risk is fuel: the grass, scrub and vegetation that grows through spring. If conditions turn warm and windy later in the season, that growth can dry out surprisingly quickly.
That's why fire preparation starts long before the hills turn brown.
A few hours spent around the property this spring can pay dividends later:
Clear dead vegetation, long grass and other flammable material from around buildings
Clean leaves and debris from gutters
Remove highly flammable vegetation close to homes
Create space between vegetation and structures where possible
Keep accessways clear for emergency vehicles
Check pumps, hoses and water supplies are in good working order
Know your evacuation routes
Stay up to date with fire restrictions and fire danger conditions
Fire-wise planting can also help. Choosing less flammable species and maintaining defensible space around buildings can reduce the intensity of a fire if one occurs.
Resilience starts long before the forecast changes
Preparing for El Niño isn't just something households need to think about.
Across the district, Council and partner agencies are also preparing for the possibility of severe weather, flooding, infrastructure disruptions and wildfire conditions over the months ahead. That includes monitoring weather forecasts and river conditions, maintaining critical infrastructure, reviewing emergency response plans and working closely with emergency services and lifeline utilities.
But resilience is strongest when it starts locally.
Across the Southern Lakes, Community Resilience Groups are helping neighbourhoods become better prepared for emergencies. Made up of local volunteers, these groups help connect communities with emergency information, identify vulnerable residents and support response and recovery efforts when events occur.
When roads are closed, power is out or communities become temporarily isolated, those local connections can make a real difference.
You don't need to join a formal response team to contribute. Simply knowing your neighbours, having a plan, checking on friends and whānau, and being prepared to look out for one another all help build a more resilient community.
Visit our community resilience page to see what's happening in your area and how you can get involved.
Looking for more advice?
Gardening and water conservation
Growing food locally
Wao's Food Resilience Calendar of workshops, seed swaps and community events
Fire preparedness
Check current fire seasons, restrictions and advice at Check It's Alright
Learn more about protecting your property from wildfire at Fire and Emergency New Zealand